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Location: Massachusetts, United States

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Multi-engine training -- Day 2

This morning was spent reviewing the Seminole's performance charts, which help the pilot calculate take-off and landing distances in various atmospheric and loading conditions as well as accelerate-stop distance in the event of an engine failure on the runway. We also discussed what to do if an engine were to quit at various times during flight operations.
After a quick weight and balance problem, it was on to simulator training.
Like many other sims, this one -- a Frasca -- is very twitchy and pitch sensitive and requires some finesse to control. It's not so much designed to teach a student how to fly the plane but rather to practice procedures and flows and get familiarized with the cockpit.
I was a little concerned about flying it but got a feel for it within minutes. Flying it in IMC will be a different story altogether, however.
After going through the engine start procedures, we began flight maneuvers with steep turns, which presented no problems. Then came slow flight, which while simple in the 172 proved a little trickier in the sim since I'd never flown a variable-pitch constant-speed propeller plane before. While the workload involved isn't much greater than that of flying a fixed-pitch aircraft, it takes some time to get adjusted to monitoring both an RPM and manifold pressure gauge and moving an extra set of levers to set the angle of the propeller blades. Oh, and of course because in addition to it the Seminole is a twin, I am now responsible for not one engine control lever (or two including the mixture) but four (two throttles, two prop controls) or six, including the mixture control.
But with time, I began to get the hang of moving the levers together and matching performance on both engines. We did a couple of stalls, which are simple maneuvers but had me fall behind on the list of procedures established by the school.
Next up was Vmc demo, which involves simulating an engine failure by pulling back the throttle and slowing the airplane to the speed at which directional control is lost. (Vmc is the minimum speed at which directional control is maintained with the critical engine failed). Again, the maneuver is in and of itself reasonably simple but while I wrestled the sim I found myself forgetting the various steps involved.
After three or four demos, I was doing ok. As mentioned above, the exercise consists of simulating a failure of the left engine by retarting the throttle. Right rudder must then be applied to counter left-turning forces and a gentle bank into the operating engine is called for to achieve a zero sideslip condition, thereby reducing drag from the fuselage flying cock-eyed into the relative wind.
Pitch is increased and as the airspeed drops, more rudder is needed to maintain heading and foiling the aircraft's nasty plans to roll into the dead engine. Quite interesting and definitely challenging. I wonder what it'll be like in the plane.
After that, the instructor let me fly straight and level for a while. When I asked what we were doing, he simply replied "We're cruisin'."
Something was amiss, for sure.
A second later, the plane rolled and yawed left. Engine failure.
Emergency checklist: maintain directional control, mixtures, props, throttles full forward, flaps and gear up, identify the failed engine, verify by pulling back the throttle (a change in performance would obviously indicate that the wrong engine is about to be shut down). Since we were above 3,000 AGL, I decided to troubleshoot the failure, but to no avail so opted to feather and secure the dead engine.
Once all the checklists were complete, we did an air restart and called it a day.
My slowness in flowing through the procedures for each maneuver frustrated me, so I'm memorizing those and running through the flows by "chair-flying" them in front of a poster of the Seminole's cockpit tonight. I also ran through the checklists from start-up to shutdown to become more familiar with them and my night will end with more reading from the aircraft's POH, which is turning out to be quite a fascinating book!

Tomorrow: Sim in the morning and finally, weather allowing, a couple of hours in the Seminole to practice maneuvers.
Woohoo!

Update: My multi-engine checkride, originally scheduled for next Tuesday, might be moved up to Saturday. And to add to the excitement there might be an FAA inspector in the back, who will be recertifying the examiner giving me the exam. I don't know what to think of that, although on the upside the checkride would be free...

Monday, January 30, 2006

Multi-engine training -- Day 1

Busy is the word of the day.
Set off for the airport in the thickest fog I have seen in a while early this morning and after some paperwork it was time for ground school on critical engine, Vmc and the Piper Seminole's systems.
In a nutshell, the critical engine in a twin prop-driven airplane is the one which, were it to fail, would impact handling the most. While the Seminole has no critical engine because of its counter-rotating props, it typically is the left engine on other aircraft because of a variety of reasons (P-factor, accelerated slipstream, spiraling slipstream and torque). What that means, is that if the left engine were to quit the plane's tendency to roll and yaw into the dead engine would be worst than if the right one died.
Vmc, the second topic of today's study, is the minimum speed at which directional control of the aircraft can be maintained with the critical engine windmilling. Again, a whole panoply of factors come into play to determine Vmc and whether it's high or low. On the Seminole, it remains pretty low even in the worst of scenarios (in standard conditions at sea level with the inop engine windmilling, the least favorable weight and center of gravity, flaps and gear up, full power in the operating engine and in a zero-slip situation) but on more powerful twins like the Baron and King Air it can be a killer in a hurry.
In addition to learning to fly the Seminole, the multi-engine rating will focus heavily on emergencies, more particularly failed engines. The brief introduction to this reminded me of a friend of mine who had a close call in his checks flying days when the left engine on the beat up old Seneca died after take-off in the soup.
The weather was down to minimums and in the process of returning to the airport to land, he forgot to hit the suicide switch, which selects either GPS or radio navigation course guidance on the flight instruments. That meant that he wasn't where he thought he was on the approach.
There's a reason they call it the suicide switch...
He quickly caught his mistake, got back on the final approach course and landed safely, all on one engine. Luck was on his side as he couldn't maintain altitude and was surrounded by terrain.
I gained a lot of perspective today!
Much of this is new to me, although I've been studying the basics for a few months so it has been a fascinating and very rewarding day. After my instructor and I went over the basics, I came "home" to study those topics more and learn flows, checklists and procedures. There's A LOT of information in my brain right now and I feel it buzzing.
What a tremendous feeling.
Tomorrow: more ground and sim. Weather allowing, I should go up in the Seminole on Wednesday.
Now off to sleep...

Sunday, January 29, 2006

Day 0

After a busy week and a 9.5 hours drive, here I am in Virginia, a short night's sleep away from beginning training.
It's been a long week and a long few months spent planning this career change and studying. Now the journey is about to begin. In typical aviation style, tomorrow will begin with a stack of paperwork after which my instructor and I will start multi-engine training in preparation for the checkride tentatively scheduled for Feb. 7.
Before I pack it in for the night, I'll go over the Seminole's POH again and run through the school's flows and emergency procedures, which I'm expected to be more than familiar with.
Excitement is a weak word to describe how I feel. Ahead of me lay hours spent in that beautiful sky, a lot of learning and most likely good friendships. Already, I've met my roomate, a very nice young guy about to take his double I and commercial single add-on and one of the school's instructors, who also appears to be a first-class sorta fellow.
I'd be lying, though, if I didn't admit to feeling sad. Two hours ago, I dropped Jen off at BWI where she boarded a flight home and I miss her terribly already. She's been there every minute of my dreaming this new life, planning it and has shown nothing but excitement, enthusiasm and most importantly patience and support. Few women, I'm sure, would put up with as much aviation babble as I'm capable of spewing out, so she truly is one of a kind and I am a very lucky man (OK, man child.)
Not having her by my side for the next few months will be, without a doubt, the hardest part of my training.


* * *

The day before setting off for Virginia, I had the pleasure of meeting up with Scott and hitched a ride in Yellowbird, a beautiful 1974 Cessna Cardinal. The short flight was a true pleasure as the day cleared up perfectly and offered mostly smooth air and unlimited visibility. The company, of course was outstanding. Unfortunately while taxiing out to depart on his way home Scottie suffered a nose gear puncture. To make things worse, the wheelpant was cracked during the tire change. I hope Yellowbird feels her old self again very soon.
Again, thanks for a fantastic flight, Scottie.

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Me, the Man Child

I've always been quite disorganized so the way this week has shaped up has come with little surprise. Once more, I've tried to pack in five days more than they can actually handle and am having one of those weeks...

Monday: after a glorious morning spent shovelling heavy snow, have an interesting drive in pretty slippery roads to very rural Massachusetts, where I was told I'd find a friendly and more importantly cheap AME. After some maneuvering around snow-packed country roads, I find the mysterious man and, as promised, he turns out to be both. Respectable 73-year old doctor with a true passion for aviation and an outgoing demeanor.
Form and pee cup filled, so off to his office I go. He shakes my hand and proceeds to tell me that he is about to divorce this crazed woman with a violent penchant -- his third wife and Episcopalian priest -- who proclaims she hates him. Fair enough. The story goes on and is punctuated here and there with the actual examination. Half-an-hour later, as we head over to the eye test machine, he explains to me that he doesn't much care for substantial women but that his second wife has apparently lost quite a bit of weight and has been inquiring about him lately. This goes on for while, followed by his admission to being an anarchist and a rather lenghty discussion about how he considers himself a resident alien of the United States since, he says, the Constitution says the Federal Government has no jurisdiction over individual states. Right. Finally, after about an hour he hands me my First Class.
All in all, a very good experience and he is a brilliant guy but all this could've been done in 10 minutes.
On the way home, I of course manage to get lost and go 10 miles in the wrong direction, wasting more valuable time slotted to study for my Commercial written.

Tuesday: I actually get some studying in, but pay little attention to laundry, packing and general planning for Saturday's departure (and 8-hour drive to Manassas). Hey, I've got another couple of days, right? Like that's never cost me before. Dinner with Jen and my stepdaughter Emily at a nice Italian restaurant. Substantial amounts of food and a much too tasty San Giovese mean little work done in the evening. Get drowsy.

Wednesday: Rush to the Irish Consulate to pick up my new passport then race 30 miles away to one of two dentist appointments this week. Debilitating experience, spend much of the afternoon recovering. Study for a little bit. Realize I've just run out of checks. Good timing! Waste valuable time writing this...

Second dentist appointment is tomorrow, Thursday, followed by studying and dinner with Jen's family.

Friday: commercial written in the morning, followed by coffee and a flight with fellow blogger Scottie (Yellowbird) then a mad dash home to pack (Jesus, almost forgot about that!) before drinks with my bro in law and then on to a farewell dinner with friends. Should be an interesting day.

I really have got to grow up...

Saturday, January 21, 2006

The final shutdown

At about 17:30 yesterday, I logged off my work computer and left the building for the last time.
For the past year I've thought about that moment and wondered how it would feel. A certain sense of relief would no doubt be part of the cocktail of emotions as well as happiness and excitement about turning a new page.
And yet I found myself carrying just a hint of sadness in my heart. Not a single ounce of regret but certainly a little nostalgia, knowing that that was the last day of the past five and a half years of my life. The previous day had been spent printing a number of stories I wrote in that period, a lengthy process that brought back some very good memories indeed and made me feel good about my time at the company.
As Friday drew to a close, I hit the button on my keyboard, gathered my stuff, shook a few hands and headed out into the evening, where friends awaited at a nearby bar. The walk there afforded me a few minutes to ponder the moment and I found myself smiling. I felt like a kid with a whole bright new future ahead, opportunities and adventures that would take me far away from the darker days of my now previous career.
When that screen went dark and silent, it took with it the bad memories and locked them all away.
I pushed open the door to the pub and for the first time in a while had a head full of only the good times behind and anticipation for those ahead.
A week from today it'll be here. I'll miss my wife tremendously, it won't be easy but we're sure of this decision.
Here I go...

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Supersition?

I'm not superstitious.
OK, maybe just a tad bit. After all, I made a point of avoiding Friday Jan. 13 as the last day at work and the first of my new career in aviation.
Since then, good omens have cropped up. On Saturday, for instance, Jen and I stopped by Blockbuster to pick up a movie. On the way in, the took a free newspaper from a rack at the door. On the front page was a story about airlines entering a hiring boom. Good, I though as I read through it.
Then today at work, as I ran downstairs for a bite to eat, a television in the elevator flashed a headline hinting at brighter days for the airlines. Intrigued, I searched for the full story when I returned to my desk.
And here is what I found.

---------------------------

Could airlines wing way to profitability in 2006?

By Dan Reed, USA TODAYTue Jan 17, 8:58 AM ET

The most remarkable news of 2006 might turn out to be that the long-beleaguered U.S. airline industry turns a profit - or comes close.

For the first time in more than a decade, all four of the airlines' key economic drivers - supply of airline seats, travel demand, operating costs and fares - are moving in the right direction, at least from the perspective of the USA's airlines. As a result, a growing list of airline bulls says that 2006 should show vast improvement from a disastrous 2005 in which U.S. airlines collectively lost an estimated $10 billion.

For consumers, it means higher fares and fuller planes. But for the industry, relief is overdue after five miserable years of the worst downturn ever in commercial aviation. Even established skeptics such as analyst Vaughn Cordle of AirlineForecasts, agree that "the industry is on the cusp of a recovery" in 2006. And, he says, it could turn into a "major recovery" if oil prices fall further than expected.

Industrywide profit this year remains unlikely to a large extent because of continuing deep losses by Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines, both in Chapter 11 bankruptcy since September. But many on Wall Street say the profit outlook is good for money-making discount giant Southwest. Further, they say, some of the most troubled big carriers in the last few years stand a good shot of moving into the black.

In particular, American Airlines, the USA's largest carrier, and No. 5 Continental Airlines are both well-positioned for turnarounds. US Airways - formed in September when America West acquired the old US Airways out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and adopted its name - could also turn a profit in 2006. No. 2 United is expected to emerge from Chapter 11 in the first quarter, but it's not expected to earn a profit before 2007.

JPMorgan's Jamie Baker is among the most bullish Wall Street analysts. A year ago, he and others fretted about a high-cost industry "not built for $40 oil." Now, with oil hovering above $60 a barrel, he believes the strongest carriers will be profitable. Baker says he is more optimistic about the industry's "near-term fundamental prospects ... than at any time this decade."

Analyst Robert Ashcroft, who left UBS last year but continues to track the airline industry, says, "It shouldn't be a surprise that we're getting a transition year. The surprise should be that it took so long to get here."

Still, Ashcroft tempers his optimism: "Every year since 9/11, we have been looking for a transition year, but something kept it from happening. SARS. War. The economy. Hurricanes. Oil prices. Now, it looks like this may finally be the year. But my fear is that we'll wake up tomorrow and find that it's yesterday all over again."

Veteran airline consultant Julius Maldutis puts it more succinctly. Airlines "have a disturbing knack for screwing it up," he says.

Some industry analysts have more modest expectations. John Heimlich, chief economist at the Air Transport Association, the industry's trade group, cautions that even under the rosiest 2006 scenario, the industry is "not out of the woods yet."

Fewer domestic seats

Last year, rising fuel prices and persistent low fares pushed the big network carriers into making the deep cuts in flying capacity they had long resisted. Many of the planes removed from the domestic market didn't go away. Carriers shifted them to international markets where fares and demand are stronger.

But in the domestic market, the number of airline seats for sale this month is down 5% from a year ago, according to a USA TODAY analysis of schedule data from Back Aviation Solutions. That's 128,000 seats per day that are no longer available for sale, and the constricted supply makes it easier for airlines to get a better price.

That drop in capacity, and a nearly 5% increase in passenger miles flown in 2005, pushed the percentage of seats filled to record levels in 2005.

Even now, in the slowest time of the year for air travel, almost eight out of 10 seats are filled with paying passengers. In effect, that means most planes on popular routes, and most prime-time flights, are flying full.

It also helps the carriers that a lot of the demand is coming from business travelers. Business fliers these days typically don't pay the kind of premium prices they did in the go-go days of the late 1990s. But they still are time-sensitive and willing to pay significantly more than price-sensitive leisure travelers.

"The corporate players that pulled their horns in on travel back in 2002 and 2003 are getting back out on the road pretty significantly," says David Cush, general sales manager at American, the world's largest carrier.

He estimates about a 10% increase in the annual growth in business travel at American in the last year. That reverses a trend in which corporate demand had fallen every year since the all-time peak in 2000.

Leisure travel demand also has continued to grow this year despite fare increases, Cush says.

Fuel costs pull profits down

Only the persistent high cost of fuel prevents the U.S. airline industry from being in the middle of its biggest profit cycle ever.

Since 2000, the ATA's Heimlich estimates U.S. carriers have cut more than $15 billion in annual non-fuel costs, and they aim to chop several billion dollars more.

It's been painful. More than 160,000 employees have lost their jobs during the period. Most other workers have seen their pay and benefits cut, and their work requirements increased. United and the old US Airways defaulted on their pension plans, and Northwest and Delta are candidates to do so this year.

But those sacrifices and savings have been overwhelmed by high fuel prices. In 2001, oil was slightly more than $30 a barrel. However, strong demand and tight capacity for refining and delivery had more than doubled oil prices even before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the Gulf Coast last summer. The price of crude hit $69.91 a barrel on Aug. 30, the day after Katrina struck, according to the ATA.

In the following weeks, the cost of refining it into jet fuel soared to more than $30 a barrel, on top of the crude price. Airlines briefly paid more than $2.10 a gallon for jet fuel in October, vs. about 90 cents in October 2004.

Ironically, consultant Maldutis says, high fuel prices gave carriers an unexpected ability to push through a string of fare price increases last year.

For once, a traveling public that for years revolted at attempts to boost fares - even by $5 - seemed willing to accept several rounds of fare increases.

Revenue for each airline seat flown one mile - a key financial indicator - rose about 6% in 2005. The bullish Baker expects it to rise another 12% this year in domestic markets, and 7% overall.

Those big unit revenue gains of the fall caused airline stocks to surge. The Amex Airline Index increased 42.5% from Sept. 21 to Jan. 6. AMR, American's parent, saw its stock price increase 128% in that period, while Continental stock rose 122%.

Baker believes the nation's economy will continue growing at or near its current pace throughout the year. He expects there'll be more room to bump up fares without driving away customers.

Oil prices remain a factor

But other analysts' more restrained outlooks seem well-founded.

Jonathan Leak, an executive at World Fuel Services, a consulting firm that advises airlines and others on fuel buying and hedging strategies, says that unless some unforeseen major event or trend shift triggers a big reduction in worldwide oil demand, "oil prices in 2006 will be volatile" and react to "the headlines of the day."

The ATA's Heimlich expects airlines to pay an average of about $1.67 a gallon for jet fuel this year.

Yet, Baker and other bulls hold out some hope that the airlines will pay a little less. They expect greater benefits from the easing in crude prices and refining costs, and from restoration of production at hurricane-damaged facilities. That would mean carriers such as American and Continental that already have made big strides in reducing their non-fuel costs could earn more than a few pennies per share this year.

Baker recently raised his 2006 earnings estimate on American to $1.60 a share from 50 cents, and on Continental to $1.15 a share from 90 cents. His is a minority view. Yet, in a recent report, he suggested that his outlook might be too conservative.

Not every industry watcher sees a significant improvement this year.

Calyon Securities analyst Ray Neidl says the risk of additional airline bankruptcy filings has faded for now.

But "the market has overreacted" to positive developments in the industry, he says.

Despite an outlook that he agrees is improving rapidly, Heimlich still projects an industry loss of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for 2006.

"It's a bipolar world," he says. "Some carriers like Southwest will have nice profits. But others could lose a lot. It's hard to imagine 2006 not being the best year since 2000, but that could still mean an overall loss for the group."

Meanwhile, industry veterans such as Maldutis and Cordle, who have seen the airline industry quickly swing from good times to bad, worry that once prosperity returns, the big carriers will somehow manage to lose the financial discipline that they've learned the hard way.

"You watch," Cordle says. "The first thing these airlines will do when they get on the other side of bankruptcy will be to announce exciting new growth opportunities. We'll be off to the races again and headed for another restructuring."